October 3, 2018
PANEL SESSION OF REW - 2018: "WHAT WILL BE THE GLOBAL GAS MARKET-2030?”
The Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation, Alexander Novak, spoke at the panel session “What will be the global gas market - 2030”, which opened the business program of the Russian Energy Week International Forum held with the support of the Russian Ministry of Energy.
Together with Alexander Novak, Minister of Energy and Industry of Qatar Mohammed bin Saleh Al-Sad, Secretary General of the «GECF» Yuri Senturin, Chairman of the Board of PJSC «Novatek» Leonid Mikhelson, and Deputy Chairman of the Board of PJSC «Gazprom» Alexander Medvedev took part in the discussion.
In his speech, the Russian Minister noted that the role of gas as an energy resource will grow.
“In the period up to 2040, gas will be the most demanded hydrocarbon resource in many sectors of the economy, including electricity, transportation, gas chemistry, as it fully meets environmental requirements,” said Alexander Novak.
During his speech, the head of the Russian Ministry of Energy also presented a report on the prospects for gas on world markets in the period up to 2030. He noted that over the past 10 years, natural gas production in the world increased by 21% or 640 billion cubic meters of gas, while world gas trade increased by 46% or 360 billion cubic meters of gas.
“The share of gas in the world energy balance will increase from 23% to 26%, and the total demand for gas will increase by 40% by 2035,” the Minister noted.
Alexander Novak stressed that while the LNG market grew by almost 70%. "This led to an increase in gas consumers from 17 to 40 countries, and in the next decade we expect consumers to double. The share of LNG in world trade will increase 2 or 3 times, and trade in pipeline gas will be 15-20%. Excess demand over the proposal will create a potential niche in the period from 2024 to 2035 in the amount of approximately 250 million tons against the current level of 300 million tons, "said Alexander Novak.
If you look at the growth in demand for LNG, then it is traditionally observed in Asia. Until 2030, this market will account for approximately 86% of the overall growth in demand for LNG, ” added Minister of Energy and Industry of the State of Qatar Al-Sad Mohammed bin Saleh.
Today, many buyers choose the tactics of waiting, or go to spot contracts. We take into account the changing market conditions and in each case we react individually. Even 20 years ago, when we first started working in the field of LNG, all clients insisted on long-term contracts. Today everything has changed. And I do not exclude that by 2025 changes will occur again. We will respond adequately - said Mr. Mohammed bin Saleh.
The head of the Russian Ministry of Energy is confident that Russia has a large untapped potential in increasing gas production and LNG production.
"We see opportunities to increase our own production, we have unique resources, for example, in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Area. On Yamal, our reserves are about 40 trillion cubic meters of gas, the local resource base allows us to provide LNG production in the amount of 80 to 115 million tons per year" - noted Alexander Novak. At the same time, he added, competition between Russian pipeline gas and LNG is excluded, they will complement each other.
According to the head of the Ministry of Energy of Russia, demand for gas in the main sales markets will continue to grow, especially in the regions of Europe and the Asia-Pacific countries.
We are counting on growth in gas consumption in Europe. According to our estimates, the increase in imports is possible at the level of 100 billion cubic meters of gas. We see the Chinese market as a potentially growing gas market. Already this year, over 8 months, the volume of LNG purchases from China increased almost by 50%, said the Minister. From the point of view of demand, according to Alexander Novak, African countries that still have no access to world energy markets are also promising.
In conclusion, Alexander Novak stressed that Russia will continue to ensure the energy security of consumers as a reliable gas supplier.